Vegas Golden Knights - Tampa Bay Lightning


Staff member
4 Jul 2021
22.12.21 - 04:00 CET


Before I get to the analysis, I must mention for those who don't care about NHL, that COVID-19 is here and it is affecting NHL. And it is affecting it in such a way that only one of tonight's 10 games will be played! Vegas Golden Knights welcome Tampa Bay Lightning. NHL management has agreed with the players' association to suspend the league until the end of the week. From Dec. 22 to Dec. 25, 2021, the stadiums will be closed and will open at least for training and testing on Sunday, Dec. 26. As you know, the players' participation in the Beijing Olympics itself is also in danger. The decision will be known in a few days.

But now to the game itself. I chose Vegas vs. Tampa game and I was very hesitant about what to put. At first I thought the home team would win, but both teams are good, have quality teams and I didn't see it as a more clear cut decision. The final choice came down to the number of goals in the game.

The home team goes into the game with a 20-11-0 score (10-6-0 at home), while the visiting team has a 19-6-4 score (9-3-2 away). Covid has avoided these teams so far, but that doesn't mean they have all the players available. Vegas has to do without long-term injured players like Jack Eichel and Alec Martinez. Nolan Patrick won't make it into the game and Mark Stone is a question mark. Tampa Bay is in a similar situation. They can't count on the four long-term injured - Erik Cernak, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Gemel Smith.

* Golden Knights are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite.
* Golden Knights are 4-0 in their last four games vs. teams from the Eastern Conference.
* Golden Knights are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. teams from the Atlantic Division.
* Lightning are 4-1 in their last five road games.

Vegas vs Tampa Bay (standings)
* goals scored per game: 3.484 (4th) vs 3.172 (11th)
* goals conceded per game: 3.032 (20th) vs. 2.586 (7th)
* shots on goal per game: 33.26 (10th) vs 29.28 (24th)
* success shooting percentage: 10.48% (6th) vs 10.84% (3rd)
* shot success rate of all goalies: 90.30% (22nd) vs 91.30% (9th)
* power play usage: 18.42% (18th) vs 17.98% (20th)
* power play defended: 77.53% (24th) vs 79.76% (19th)

Both teams are averaging more than three goals per game and both teams combined are averaging more than five goals per game. The last six games between the teams have always ended with at least five goals. In my opinion, at least six goals will be scored.

My bet:
Over 5.5 Goals @ 1.80 (bet365)

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