Vegas Golden Knights - Dallas Stars

Giovanni

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902
09.12.21 - 04:00 CET

NHL

I'm going to go against the tide with today's analysis. I've picked a home game for Vegas Golden Knights, who welcome Dallas Stars.

The home team would like to build on two good wins (7-1 in Arizona and 3-2 at home against Calgary), while Dallas Stars will go into the game with a seven game winning streak. Six of the seven wins have come at home, with five goals in six of the seven games and four goals in one. That's also why I chose the four or more goal limit.

Golden Knights goes into the game with a 14-10-0 score (8-5-0 at home), while the visiting Stars are 13-7-2 (4-5-1 away).

The home team is without long-term injured Jack Eichel, Alec Martinez and Nolan Patrick, while visiting Dallas can't count on goalie Ben Bishop, who is nursing a knee injury, and Michael Raffl is a question mark for this game.

Vegas vs Dallas (standings)
* goals scored per game: 3.333 (6th) vs 2.864 (20th)
* goals conceded per game: 3.042 (20th) vs. 2.636 (8th)
* shots on goal per game: 32.79 (12th) vs 29.64 (21st)
* success shooting percentage: 10.17% (11th) vs 9.66% (15th)
* shot success rate of all goalies: 90.70% (19th) vs 91.20% (9th)
* power play usage: 14.29% (27th) vs 26.23% (5th)
* power plays defended: 83.82% (8th) vs 80.88% (19th)

As I wrote at the beginning, I'm going against the tide. Vegas plays at home, they have a positive score at home, they play well as a team, they don't concede as many goals and they have good goalkeepers. On the other hand, a team that has form and a consistent performance will come to Vegas, but will be playing away against a good team. However, a good power play could be a game changer. I don't see the odds as 50:50, more like 35%, because Stars have to fall sometime and in Vegas its not easy to win, but I'll give it a try.

My bet:
Dallas Stars and Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.34
 

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