New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets

5 Jul 2021
09.12.21 - 02:00 CET

In this game, I think it's an interesting bet on less than 214.5 points, because:

1. New Orleans is averaging just 103.3 points per game, the 4th lowest of any team in the league.

2. New Orleans also have the 5th worst shooting success rate in the entire NBA.

3. Denver is averaging 108.4 points per game. Combined, these teams are averaging 211.7 points per game, which suits our bet.

4. Both teams are playing at a slow pace - Denver has the 2nd slowest pace in the league, New Orleans has the 7th slowest pace of any team in the last 5 games this season.

5. Denver has been successful defensively for a long time, conceding an average of only 104.1 points per game, which is the 3rd best defense in NBA.

Given the above, I don't think New Orleans will score more than their average of 103 points. If Denver were to win by about 3 points as the bookmakers predict, the score could be a close 103-106.

My bet:
Number of points including overtime - Under 214.5 @ 1.82

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