Nashville Predators - Chicago Blackhawks

Giovanni

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01.01.22 - 20:00 CET

NHL

Here I'll play a bet on shots on goal by the visiting Blackhawks. I'm going with the over here, meaning Chicago Blackhawks will take at least 27 shots on goal.

First, let's look at the stats, which tell us that the stakes are set pretty low for Blackhawks shot count. The stats tell us that Blackhawks produce an average of 27.5 shots on goal, which is a little above average for what we need, but not staggeringly so. Of course, there are two sides to every coin, so let's look at the 29.4 number, we like that better. This number determines the number of shots the home Predators receive per game, that's two more shots than the minimum we need.

We're coming to the topic of roster play, which could either be an advantage or a disadvantage for Blackhawks. They haven't played a game since December 19, which could be noticeable. Predators, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd game in three days, which can show in a league like the NHL, and they may be pulling the short end of the stick.

Then there are also 2 aspects that can be decisive. They are the power play and Roman Josi.
Predators are the second most shut out team with an average of over 4 shutouts per game. Let's calculate the equation power play = shots on goal. So Blackhawks could score a few extra shot attempts during power plays. The other aspect is the defender of Predators defense, Josi, who will not play in the game, which is very unpleasant news for the home Predators. However, for us, the absence of Josi is good news - Predators defense could be more penetrating and therefore again more shots for Blackhawks.

Summary: why should this analysis work?
1) Stats (Blackhawks - 27.5 shots on goal per game, vs. Predators - against them 29.4 shots on goal per game)
2) Possible game fatigue for Predators, on the other hand, rest for Blackhawks
3) often shorthanded game by Predators
4) the absence of Roman Josi, Predators' most important defenseman

My bet:
Number of shots on target by Chicago in a game: Over 26.5 @ 1.84
 

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