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18.11.21 - 01:40 CET
NBA
In this game, I think it's an interesting bet on less than 214.5 points because:
1. New Orleans shoots few points - they average only 102 points per game, which is the 5th lowest average in the league. In their last 8 games, they've only managed to score over 100 points in 2 games.
2. Miami has a good defense - they average only 103 points per game, which is the 7th best defense in the league. They also have the 3rd best defensive rebounding average and the fewest points allowed from restricted territory.
3. New Orleans hasn't been getting a lot of points lately - they're averaging just 108.4 points per game in their last 5 games.
4. Both teams are playing at a slower pace - Miami has the 7th slowest pace of play in the league, New Orleans has the 3rd slowest pace of play in their last 5 games, which reduces the probability of a high scoring game for us.
5. For Miami, Butler is still questionable - I think they will spare him against a weak opponent like New Orleans, so even if he does play, he won't get full minutes. Without Butler, Miami is averaging just 107.6 points per game in their last 3 games.
Given the above, I assume New Orleans won't score more than 100 points. If Miami wins by about 8 points, as the bookmakers predict, we could have a score like 108:100 and our bet could be successful.
My bet:
Number of points including overtime: Under 214.5 @ 1.77
NBA
In this game, I think it's an interesting bet on less than 214.5 points because:
1. New Orleans shoots few points - they average only 102 points per game, which is the 5th lowest average in the league. In their last 8 games, they've only managed to score over 100 points in 2 games.
2. Miami has a good defense - they average only 103 points per game, which is the 7th best defense in the league. They also have the 3rd best defensive rebounding average and the fewest points allowed from restricted territory.
3. New Orleans hasn't been getting a lot of points lately - they're averaging just 108.4 points per game in their last 5 games.
4. Both teams are playing at a slower pace - Miami has the 7th slowest pace of play in the league, New Orleans has the 3rd slowest pace of play in their last 5 games, which reduces the probability of a high scoring game for us.
5. For Miami, Butler is still questionable - I think they will spare him against a weak opponent like New Orleans, so even if he does play, he won't get full minutes. Without Butler, Miami is averaging just 107.6 points per game in their last 3 games.
Given the above, I assume New Orleans won't score more than 100 points. If Miami wins by about 8 points, as the bookmakers predict, we could have a score like 108:100 and our bet could be successful.
My bet:
Number of points including overtime: Under 214.5 @ 1.77
