Miami Heat - Indiana Pacers

6 Jul 2021
22.12.21 - 01:40 CET


In this game, I think it's an interesting bet at less than 214.5 points, because:

1. Miami will be missing Tucker and Martin in addition to the longer-term absentees Butler and Adebayo, and it's questionable whether Herro will start. Miami is averaging only 103.6 points per game in the last 5 games and it is possible that with these absences they will not get over that mark again.

2. Miami has been playing at a slow pace for a long time. Season-long pace is 3rd slowest in the league, even 2nd slowest pace in last 5 games. This makes us more likely to score low points.

3. Indiana is also playing at a slow pace - season-long they have the 6th slowest pace of any team, 5th slowest pace out of last 5 games.

4. Both teams are also scoring few points - Miami only 99.6 points per game in their last 5 games and Indiana only 104.8 points per game. Combined, that's only 204.2 points per game, which suits our bet.

Given the above, I think the current odds at less than 210.5 points are of good enough value.

My bet:
Number of points including overtime: Under 210.5 @ 2.0

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