FC Porto - Atletico Madrid

31 Aug 2021
07.12.21 - 21:00 CET

Group B is extremely convoluted, the only team that is certain to advance is Liverpool. They have won 15 points from 5 games and are promoted from first place. But how does it look going forward? FC Porto hold 2nd place with 5 points, third placed AC Milan have four points and are thanks to score ahead of Atlético, who also have four points. This leaves FC Porto and Atlético Madrid tied for promotion, but even an Atlético win may not be enough to advance - they must hope for a faltering of AC Milan with Liverpool. Well, if Porto win, then the second qualifier is decided. Of course, there is still the Europa League play-offs to play for from third place, but the priority for all three teams is surely the spring Champions League stage.

What leads me to pick over 2.5 goals in this game? First of all, it is one of the few groups where the match is not yet decided, which gives me confidence that the strongest possible line-ups will be used. Secondly, the situation is favorable that both teams need to win, one point for Atlético won't solve anything and for Porto it might not either, so both teams will play to win. So if the first goal falls, the losing team will already have to open it up, which will bring either an equaliser or an increase in the score. Here, I just find the odds of 2.0 for at least three goals quite high, as the situation of both teams speaks for everything - they need to win and Atletico still have to hope for a faltering AC Milan. I'm expecting a really offensive battle, it doesn't pay anyone to play for a point, so the fighters will go for it from the start.

Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.0

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