Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

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5 Jul 2021
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05.01.22 - 01:00 CET

NHL

Tampa has 2 draws in 4 games since the break (0,1,1,2) despite the terrible score but each team outshot the other at least on shots, so there will be some frustration in the team. I think they will slowly pick it up, but..

1. Even though I'm slightly favoring Tampa here, the odds of 1.71 on Tampa are worthless to me, considering they tied their first game after the break with Montreal last time and were at maybe 1.45

2. Both teams are drawing - Tampa has 2 draws in their last 4 games and 13 draws in 34 games overall. According to the 4.5 odds on Tampa's draws, they should draw every 4th-5th game, which is definitely not the case, and the draw falls in every 2nd-3rd game. On the other hand, Columbus has 8 draws out of 30 games, which is a draw not even every 4th game

3. The value of the odds. As the statistics above show, an odds of 4.5 just has a huge value

4. Tampa's form. As I wrote at the beginning, Tampa is in terrible form and I'm sure they will pick up, but it won't be this game yet, personally I think they will struggle for 2 more games.

5. Last matches. Both teams lost their last game, Columbus 4:7 to Carolina and Tampa 0:4 to NY Rangers. This means that both teams have conceded a lot of goals in their last game, which is definitely not to the coaches liking and therefore both teams should focus more on defense in this game and not let this happen again.

My bet:
Draw @ 4.50 (bet365)
 

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