Chelsea - Tottenham


Staff member
4 Jul 2021
05.01.22 - 20:45 CET


In the first semi-final match of the English League Cup, I see a potential win closer to home Chelsea than away Tottenham.

Chelsea is traditionally very strong at home. In the league, they hold a 5-5-1 home record, having lost only to the great Manchester City, and only 0-1 at that. In the Champions League, they beat St Petersburg 1-0 at home and beat both Malmo and Juventus with high 4-0 victories, and in the League Cup they drew twice at home with Aston Villa and Southampton and twice managed a penalty shootout. Overall, then, they have lost only one of its 16 matches at home.

That Romelu Lukaku is not happy at Chelsea was predictable. Last week, the Belgian striker confirmed it in an interview with Italian television, stirring up the club's waters and angering the fans. Coach Thomas Tuchel did not nominate him for Sunday's Premier League match against Liverpool, in which the Blues managed to erase a two-goal deficit and drew 2-2. Meanwhile, Lukaku has apologised and is now back in the squad. But Tuchel did not say if he will start today's first League Cup semi-final match. For one thing, Lukaku is not nearly as productive at Chelsea as he was the previous two seasons at Inter Milan, and even without him, the recent Champions League winner has a sharp edge. On the other hand, they are troubled by a defence that has visibly deteriorated compared to last season. Goalkeeper Mendy has long since ceased to be a clean sheet machine, Blues have played eleven competitive games since the end of November and only kept a clean sheet twice.

Tottenham have a poor 3-2-3 record in the league at the opponents' grounds and they improved it for the new year with a lucky 1-0 win with an extra-time goal at Watford. In the Conference Europa League, they drew away at Rennes 2-2, but lost 0-1 at Arnhem and 1-2 in Slovenia to Mura. In the League Cup, they first won at Burnley and drew at Wolves. So, in total, they won only 4 out of 13 matches on the opponents' pitches.

Tottenham have scored in nine consecutive matches, although the captain of the English national team Harry Kane is not in ideal shooting condition since the summer EURO. That's why Tottenham are only sixth in the Premier League, 10 points behind second-placed Chelsea, who won their first game of the season 3-0 at Tottenham. In addition, coach Antonio Conte, who successfully coached Chelsea from 2016 to 2018, admitted that the team is again troubled by positive tests, although he was not specific.

Record of mutual matches played at Chelsea:
- 18-10-1 in Premier League
- 4-1-1 in League Cup

In cups, substitutes often get a chance, but it's already the semi-finals, so there won't be room for youngsters like in the first rounds. I expect that Lukaku could get some space in the home jersey after a short break. Chelsea is better this season and in the long run (Tottenham won only 2 out of 35 duels at Stamford Bridge).

My bet:
Chelsea @ 1.90 (bet365)

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