CHALLENGER: Manuel Guinard - Timofey Skatov

30 Aug 2021
05.10.21 - 10:00 CET
CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Barcelona (Spain), clay - 1/16-finals

In the first round of the clay court challenger in Barcelona (Spain), 25-year-old French tennis player Manuel Guinard (ATP 277th; max 255th) will face 20-year-old Kazakh Timofey Skatov (ATP 269th; max 269th).

This match will see tennis players who are only a few places apart in the rankings. They also have almost identical numbers this year. The odds suggest some balance in the match, but I see two important differences between them. First, Timofey is 5 years younger and I think he'll be much higher in Guinard's age ranking than Guinard currently is. The second factor is the opponents the tennis players beat or lose to.

Guinard is 30/23 overall this year, and 27/17 on clay. He is a 196cm tall tennis player. Guinard played his last match on clay on 17.08. and his last win on this surface was on 26.07. against Orlikowski (1466th). He was more or less successful only from April to June and then there was a downturn.
This year he reached the final of his home challenger Aix en Provence (June - clay), also the QF of the challenger Oeiras 2 (April - clay) and 2 ITF titles (April and May - both clay).
This year's best scalps: Carballes Baena (88), Machac (138), Ymer E. (163rd), Lehecka (177), Grenier (210) or Bemelmans (222).

Skatov has a score of 31/23 this year and 29/17 on clay. It's really very similar to his opponent. He's 5 years younger, has more better results in better tournaments this year and has beaten better opponents.
Indeed, Timofey rarely loses to weaker opponents. Often he is beaten by players who go on to the finals or the title (e.g. Ofner in Nur-Sultan 2; Rune in Oeiras 4; Bergs in Almaty 2, Basic in Almaty 3, Serdarusic in Perugia, Etcheverry in Trieste, Svrcina in Prague 4, Zeppieri in Barletta, Agamenone in Kiev, Ivashka in Nur-Sultan; and we have almost half of the losses to top tennis players in those tournaments).
This year he played the final of Almaty 2 (June - clay), 3 SF from Oeiras 4 (May - clay and via qualification), Trieste (July - clay and via qualification) and Kiev (September - clay), then also QF in Perugia (July - clay and via qualification).
Best scalps this year: Seppi (95th), Popko (187th), Clarke (192nd), Olivo (203rd), Giustino (213th), Tseng (252nd).

It's not a sure bet, but I like Skatov better on clay in the long time, plus he's more rangy and could win this match.

Timofey Skatov to win @ 1.57 (bet365)

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