ATP: John Millman - Benjamin Bonzi

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18.10.21 - 13:30 CET

ATP - SINGLES: Moscow (Russia), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Millman is a tennis player from Australia and his indoor score this year is 4/4. He hasn't played many matches this year and his overall score is a negative 19/23. He hasn't made it past the quarterfinals this season and is usually knocked out in the first round. He can't find his form and he's not doing well enough. He is ranked 90th in the ATP rankings.

Bonzi is a tennis player from France and his score this year is a fabulous 57/24. He is great this year on both on the hard and indoors. He's won 6 titles this year and he's on a roll. Unfortunately he failed US Open but in other matches he can't be stopped. He doesn't give many chances to take his submissions and it looks like he's getting tal too. Here he will be in control and it will be a clear win for him, I have a lot of hope for him here!

Bonzi is in his prime and in great form.

My bet:
Benjamin Bonzi @ 1.66 (bet365)
 
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Been working away folks so it been a while since I last posted but still working on some ideas and strategies which may be useful to the forum over time.
A strategy I have been working on for the exchanges or anywhere you can back in-play is to back both players at higher prices and tennis matches are perfect for this as the price swings can often be quite severe.
Backing both players with a level stake point only actually risks a single point because the worse case is that a player is matched as the price rises and then loses without putting sufficient pressure on the other player but if both players are matched in-play at better prices then this can guarantee a very nice profit.

This strategy also works if you are just looking for better prices on your favoured player but of course they will have to win, but finding matches that historically run closer, regular 3 setters or look awkward as various form factors balance out the ability which can offer up some great opportunities.

I posted here because of this match and took some graph screenshots showing the high prices of both players for a bit of interest.
Millman initially took a double break and because of this Bonzi touched a price high of 5.50 (9/2) and then as Millman dropped off and lost the first set and was broken in Set 2, he touched a high of 18.0 (17/1) but recovered his position nicely and actually went onto win the match.

image_2021-10-18_155553.png
 

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